Articles : Rusteberg’s 50” Muskie Equation

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Rusteberg’s 50” Muskie Equation
Factoring In the Probability You Will Catch a 50” Muskie
By: Steven James Rusteberg

N* fl ft na fh ff fc fb = N (the # of 50” Muskie in your boat)
(You do the Math!)
In my spare time, while ice covers the water, all I do is think about muskie. It has become an obsession of mine. I think about big fish. I think about catching more big fish., and I think about how I can up my odds at landing the muskie of a lifetime. One can say I live and breathe the muskie. The above mathematical formula is a great example of how much free time I must have to obsess about the fish. When I finished this formula I took a step back and wondered. I found it amazing that fifty-inch muskie are even caught at all. The fish is so rare, and the circumstances pertaining to its capture are so statically poor. The mathematical variables make it very unlikely that anyone can catch one of these beasts. But every year, more and more anglers are successful. I want to be one of those anglers… thus the formula. Putting the odds in your favor is a big step towards this goal. This formula will help you better understand your success and failure in the sport of muskellunge fishing.

I have developed this formula for those of you that obsess about the fish as much as I do. The formula is precise when the right numbers plugged into it, but one may never know some of the existing variables that each factor pertains to. The formula is linear, meaning one factor will have a direct effect on another. When calculating some of the variables we can only guess, to the precise number. Different numbers and fractions will give you different answers. I built this to make you think. Are you fishing the right lakes? Are you putting in the hours on quality spots? Are you giving yourself the best odds at being a successful angler? Study it first! Then put you numbers into the formula. The formula will really make you think about your odds of landing that “fish of a lifetime”. Use it like “Luke Skywalker” used “the force” and become a more successful muskie angler.

N*= the number of bodies of water (lakes, streams, rivers, creeks, and ponds) with a muskie population in North America.

In my study in order to write this article I have gotten many answers to this question. Some professionals estimate this number to be somewhere around 5,000 others as many as 25,000. Whatever your value for this factor is you must include every stream, rivers, creeks, and ponds with muskie swimming in them. In Vilas County Wisconsin alone, there are over two hundred six known muskie lakes. This numbers don’t even take into consideration the tributaries connected to those lakes, that inevitably, muskie inhabit .We must remember that some don’t have what we would call a “fishable muske population”. That is… a body of water worth fishing…or better put … one worth putting forth the effort to fish for a muskie. Even though they may not be bodies of waters we would choose to fish, it must be included into the formula for accuracy. For “N*” put into the formula how many bodies of water you think contain at least one muskie.

fl= the fraction of bodies of water with a fifty-inch muskie population in North America.

We must all remember that we can’t catch a large fish, such as a fifty-inch muskellunge, if we are not fishing a body of water that has at least a minute population of them. In other words don’t expect a fifty-incher if it doesn’t swim in the lake (or body of water) that you are fishing. Sounds logical? For this factor please input the number of bodies of water you think have a fifty-inch muskie population (or at least one fifty-inch muskie) swimming in it.

Scientists suggest that about 1/3 of the known muskie lakes have the ability to contain at least one fifty-inch muskellunge in them. However this fraction represents the number of lakes that actually do have a fifty-inch muskellunge swimming in it, not the possibility of the occurrence. Some environments can’t sustain a fifty-inch fish biologically. There may not be enough forage or space for this size of fish in its environment. Remember that this fish is at the very top of the food chain. There is only a certain amount of biomass a lake, river, or stream can handle. Fifty-inch muskie are rare in most waters and some waters won’t have one at all. We would like to believe that there is always one on the body of water we are fishing, but this in fact may not be true. Also remember that a fifty-inch muskellunge is a product of both its environment, and genetics. The body of water that you fish might be short on one or the other attribute.

ft= the fraction of time you spend fishing the known fifty-inch bodies of water in your life.

This number is bias to each individual angler. This fraction stands for the amount of time you actually spend in your life fishing a known fifty-inch body of water. This is not comprehensive percent of the time you spend fishing, only the time spent on a known fifty-inch lake, river, stream, creek, or pond. After all, you can’t catch a fifty-inch fish if you don’t spend part of your angling experience fishing in a body of water with some sort of fifty-inch muskie population. In other words don’t go to a numbers lake looking for a haug,. Statically there is a very minute chance of you catching one. Go to the lake that contains large numbers of bigger fish, even though in actuality it may have fewer fish.

na= the number of fifty-inch muskie swimming in the lake you are fishing.

Some scientists base this on a lakes biomass. There should only be a minute number of fish in the very top of the food chain. This number should be fairly low in respect to the number of acres and the amount of water the body of water holds. Keep in mind most scientists recommend no more than 1 fifty-inch fish per “X “ acres of water. It is also important to remember that water volume is a factor. A three hundred-acre lake might be one hundred feet deep. Another three hundred-acre lake might only be fifteen feet deep. The one hundred-foot deep lake holds more water volume and therefore has more space for several fifty-inch fish to live. The total volume of the lake should be taken into consideration when factoring this.

fh= the fraction of time you spend effectively covering a fifty-inch’ers habitat or home range while on that lake.

This number represents the fraction of time you effectively cover known fifty-inch muskie habitat while on the lake. This means that your lure is free of weeds, properly tuned, and working efficiently. You should probably factor out how long the lure is out of the water if casting. Only include the fraction of the time you spend in the best muskellunge habitat, and one that you suspect to contain a fifty-inch fish. Scientists estimate it to take 10,000 cast and 18 hours of fishing to catch just one muskie. Any idea how many hours (or casts) it takes before you get your first fifty-inch muskie?

ff= the fraction of time a fifty-inch muskie spends feeding (hunting).

This fraction can be a fairly close estimate based on a fifty-inch muskie’s activity. In warmer water a muskie’s metabolism increases and therefor it must feed more often to satisfy its energy needs. In late fall we know that as the water cools a muskie becomes less active. It’s metabolism decreases with water temperature. It will not need to feed as much in winter. During the production of eggs and throughout the spawning effort the metabolism must increase again. Professor David Whal of the Natural History Survey Illinois, has done extensive work on muskellunge metabolism levels and their relation to water tempature. His findings show that water temperature has a dramatic effect on muskellunge activity.

fc= the fraction of fifty-inch fish that actually make contact with the lure.

This fraction takes into account the number of times a fifty-inch fish misses the bait. Your bait may be in the strike zone, and the fish may be hungry but this may not be enough to actually get hooks into the fish. We must take into consideration the fraction of error by the fish actually successfully catching its dinner. Studies show that smaller fish actually miss feeding opportunities about ½ the time. Some might assume that a fish didn’t get as big as they do by missing feeding opportunities. We might also want to assume that bigger fish learn over the years how to better accomplish life functions such as feeding. Experience is to longevity as longevity is to survival. However, big fish can be klutzy. Their sheer size doesn’t necessarily help them effectively hide and hunt. There is no question they don’t digest all of the feeding opportunities. Some baitfish (and lures) must get away. Anglers count on this not being their presentation. This part of the equation also takes into consideration what your lure (or live bait) looks like to the fish. Does it look palatable?

fb= the fraction of fifty-inch fish that are actually landed.

This is fraction represents human error during the capture, and could quite possibly be one of the biggest factors in the equation. It takes into consideration terminal tackle such as rod, reel, drag, line, leader, knot, snap, lure, hooks, split rings, hook hangers, exc. I can honestly say that I have lost (for sure) two fifty-inch muskie in my life. I have successfully landed six fifty-inch muskie in my life. My record is six and two. Not bad considering! This part of the equation takes into consideration every fifty-inch muskie ever hooked and the percentages of those fish that actually were landed. I estimate the “hook-up” number to be very low and the number of “losses” to be very high.

N =

When factoring in all of the above variables one can calculate his success level of obtaining the ultimate goal, … a fifty-inch muskellunge. This formula was based on Drake’s Formula. With the correct numbers it will give you the right answer. Some variables that you plug into the formula may be just guesses. Remember, the closer your accuracy is, the more correct the outcome will become. Drake used his formula to accurately predict the possibility of intelligent life on other planets. The Rusteberg Formula will help you catch more fifty-inch fish. If all of the above variables are taken into consideration next time you are on the water you will definitely have a better chance at catching that “fish of a lifetime”. Good luck, with your obsession.